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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.