How Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles With Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian leadership meeting have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs White House without results
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he said.
Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
According to Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his initial presidency, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Combine the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to back off in the wake of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.
Putin may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia called the US president who then touted the potential summit in Budapest.
The following day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader later made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.
So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has finally settled on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – something Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, saying that concluding the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when both parties wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.